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5 novembre 2008 3 05 /11 /novembre /2008 03:01

(à 3:05)

Si dans certains Etats, les écarts sont assez importants, dans d'autres, ça va être très serré et globalement, ça va être très serré.

Parmi les Etats importants, Obama remporterait la Pennsylvanie (21) mais MacCain serait vainqueur en Géorgie (15). Les autres Etats acquis par Obama et MacCain étaient attendus.

Pour les résultats partiels sur d'autres Etats, Obama gagnerait la Caroline du Nord (15), la Virginie Occidentale (5), la Floride (27) avec 3% d'avance donc prudence, et l'Ohio (21) avec une forte avance (25%).

Au total, Obama aurait déjà 103 grands électeurs et MacCain 64 (il en faut 270 pour être élu), et en pourcentage, MacCain aurait une légère avance avec 50% contre 49% pour Obama.

Si la victoire de la Pennsylvanie, de l'Ohio et de la Floride se confirmait pour Obama, sa victoire devrait lui être assurée.

Pour retrouver tous les résultats réactualisés, c'est ici.





http://www.lepost.fr/article/2008/11/05/1316433_scrutin-ultra-serre-49-50.html


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5 novembre 2008 3 05 /11 /novembre /2008 02:37

Les premiers résultats arrivent.

Obama aurait déjà 82 grands électeurs et MacCain 40.

Les résultats vont être très serrés dans de nombreux swing States.

La nuit électorale promet d'être longue.

Une feuille régulièrement remplie des derniers résultats ici.






http://www.lepost.fr/article/2008/11/05/1316420_ca-va-etre-tres-serre-actuellement-78-34.html
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5 novembre 2008 3 05 /11 /novembre /2008 00:55

A 24:58, selon TF1, l'Indiana ferait 50% pour Obama et 49% pour MacCain en sondage sortie des urnes alors qu'il y a quelques heures, les sondages donnaient 55% pour Obama. Huffington Post indique avec réserve 52% pour Obama et 48% pour MacCain.

Donc, les résultats se resserrent. Malgré la forte participation, il peut y avoir quelques surprises...

Kentucky, sans surprise, irait à MacCain (selon TF1).



http://www.lepost.fr/article/2008/11/05/1316371_l-indiana-ca-va-etre-juste.html


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5 novembre 2008 3 05 /11 /novembre /2008 00:38

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Exit Polls 2008: See The Full Results

The Huffington Post   |   November 4, 2008 12:34 PM

(More exit polls coming soon. We explain why you shouldn't trust them below.)

The head to head exit polls just were sent to the Huffington Post by a Democratic source. These are traditionally unreliable and should be taken with a grain of salt (see: Kerry's winning margins in 2004). For what it's worth, they project a big night for Obama in several of the key swing states.

The states looking good for Obama:

Florida: 52 percent to 44 percent
Iowa: 52 percent to 48 percent
Missouri: 52 percent to 48 percent
North Carolina: 52 percent to 48 percent
New Hampshire: 57 percent to 43 percent
Nevada: 55 percent to 45 percent
Pennsylvania: 57 percent to 42 percent
Ohio: 54 percent to 45 percent
Wisconsin: 58 percent to 42 percent
Indiana: 52 percent to 48 percent
New Mexico: 56 percent to 43 percent
Minnesota: 60 percent to 39 percent
Michigan: 60 percent to 39 percent

The states where McCain is leading in exit polls:

Georgia: 51 percent to 47 percent
West Virginia: 45 percent to 55 percent

Again, as a point of caution, here is what Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg said about exit polls in an interview today with the Huffington Post: "The biggest problem with exit polls is... we do know that young voters are much more likely to do an exit survey and seniors are much less likely to do an exit poll," he said. "So exit polls are heavily waited to young people, which normal bias favors Democrats especially this year."


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4 novembre 2008 2 04 /11 /novembre /2008 23:59
Quelques liens à feuilleter pendant que les Américains votent.


RESULTATS PARTIELS EN TEMPS REEL.


Tordre le cou à quelques idées reçues sur les Etats-Unis.
http://rakotoarison.over-blog.com/article-24303712.html

Pour bien comprendre la nuit du 4 au 5 novembre 2008.
http://rakotoarison.over-blog.com/article-24403032.html

Les derniers sondages : où en est-on ?
http://rakotoarison.over-blog.com/article-23570976.html

Obama, le candidat le plus cher du monde.
http://rakotoarison.over-blog.com/article-24402966.html

Les débats présidentiels et discours des candidats.
http://rakotoarison.over-blog.com/article-24066488.html

Le programme d'Obama.
http://rakotoarison.over-blog.com/article-22420409.html

Pourquoi Obama ?
http://rakotoarison.over-blog.com/article-19306332.html

La face cachée d'Obama.
http://rakotoarison.over-blog.com/article-24417797.html

50 raisons de détester Obama.
http://rakotoarison.over-blog.com/article-24365579.html

Les bons mots de la campagne.
http://rakotoarison.over-blog.com/article-24406709.html

La meilleure campagne depuis 1960 !
http://rakotoarison.over-blog.com/article-24365372.html

La révolution du 4 novembre ?
http://rakotoarison.over-blog.com/article-24406680.html

La vidéo intégrale du documentaire sur Obama et MacCain (Arte).
http://rakotoarison.over-blog.com/article-24416863.html

L'AFP voyante connaît le vainqueur depuis 2 jours !
http://rakotoarison.over-blog.com/article-24364849.html


Sylvain Rakotoarison, le 4 novembre 2008.
http://rakotoarison.over-blog.com/article-24418549.html




http://www.lepost.fr/article/2008/11/04/1316041_boite-a-outils-pour-mieux-comprendre-les-elections-americaines-2008.html

http://www.kydiz.com/article/1943-Boite-a-outils-pour-mieux-comprendre-les-elections-americaines-2008.htm


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4 novembre 2008 2 04 /11 /novembre /2008 22:43

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Participation record dans les Etats américains les plus disputés

LEMONDE.FR | 04.11.08 | 21h22  •  Mis à jour le 04.11.08 | 22h37

Le taux de participation à l'élection présidentielle américaine a atteint mardi 4 novembre un niveau très élevé, voire "sans précédent" dans les Etats-clés. "La participation est phénoménale", a déclaré Jean Jensen, responsable des opérations électorales pour l'Etat de Virginie, en soulignant que plus de 40 % des électeurs enregistrés avaient déposé leur bulletin dans l'urne à 10 heures (16 heures, heure de Paris). L'Ohio était bien parti pour une participation record de 80 %, selon les autorités. Affluence inédite également dans le Missouri, qui, hormis une fois, a toujours voté pour le vainqueur de l'élection depuis 1904.

Bien que plus de 30 % des électeurs avaient déjà voté par anticipation dans la trentaine d'Etats où le vote anticipé était autorisé, de longues files d'attentes se sont formées devant les bureaux de vote du pays, parfois dès quatre heures du matin. De quoi conforter les pronostics de certains experts, qui tablaient sur la mobilisation de 130 à 135 millions d'électeurs. Soit bien plus que les 120 millions de 2004, où le taux de participation avait déjà dépassé les 56 %, à son plus haut niveau depuis 1968.

CAFÉ OFFERT

En dépit de la très forte affluence, peu de problèmes techniques étaient signalés dans les quatre principaux "swing states". En Virginie, Mme Jensen a seulement eu écho de l'ouverture tardive de deux bureaux de vote, du mauvais fonctionnement de machines de lecture optique des bulletins de vote et de quelques accusations de retrait arbitraire d'électeurs des registres.

A Blacksburg, bastion démocrate de cet Etat de la côte Est, nombre d'électeurs s'étaient levés très tôt afin d'aller voter et ensuite se rendre à leur travail. Dans tous le pays, se sont répétées les mêmes scènes d'électeurs patientant dans le calme, sirotant un café ou lisant le journal. Au pied des gratte-ciel de New York, une centaine de personnes attendaient devant un bureau de vote sur Wall Street, non loin de la Bourse, gardée par des policiers lourdement armés. En Floride, où plus d'un électeur sur deux a déjà voté par anticipation, l'attente semblait moindre. "Avant l'ouverture des portes, il y avait de longues files, mais maintenant tout va bien", expliquait un agent de la police de Miami, Elee Minden, en poste dans un bureau de vote de Coral Gables. Au poste de police de Miami Beach, qui faisait office de bureau de vote, une petite douzaine de personnes attendaient leur tour. Un volontaire du camp démocrate leur précisait que le bar d'à côté offre le café aux personnes ayant voté.
 
Le Monde.fr, avec AFP



America votes in historic election

Historic US vote draws millions

Voters across the United States are flocking to polling stations to choose a new president.

Republican John McCain is attempting to defy the opinion polls, while Democrat Barack Obama is seeking to become the country's first black president.

Mr Obama and Mr McCain voted in their respective home cities of Chicago, Illinois, and Phoenix, Arizona.

Several key states are reporting a heavy turnout. A total of 130 million Americans are expected to vote.

If that figure is confirmed, turnout will be higher than in any election since 1960. About 29 million have voted early.

In Virginia, a Republican stronghold which Mr Obama is hoping to capture, Secretary of State Jean Jensen told reporters: "It's a phenomenal turnout."


POLLS CLOSING FIRST
0000 GMT: Indiana, Virginia, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont
0030 GMT: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
0100 GMT: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee
 

Missouri, another battleground state, is reporting an "unprecedented turnout".

Officials in Ohio are expecting about 80% voter participation.

In North Carolina, voting has been extended in two precincts.

Mr Obama and his wife arrived at a polling station in Chicago with their two daughters.

"When polls close, the journey ends but voting with my daughters, that was a big deal," he said afterward.

He later went to Indiana for one last campaign appearance.


Please turn on JavaScript. Media requires JavaScript to play.

Voters queue in record numbers

After casting his ballot in Phoenix, Mr McCain ignored questions from journalists.

But at a later rally in Colorado, he said: "I feel the momentum... We are winning."

"Get out there and vote. I need your help," he said, urging supporters to "drag" their neighbours to polling stations if need be.

Midnight voting

In the first voting of the day, Mr Obama won by 15 votes to six in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire.


The hamlet, which has a 60-year tradition of being first in the nation to vote, opened its polls at midnight, with a 100% turnout.

It was the first time the town had voted for a Democrat since 1968.

There are also elections to renew the entire US House of Representatives and a third of US Senate seats.

Democrats are expected to expand majorities in both chambers.

They need to gain nine Senate seats to reach a 60-seat majority that would give them extra legislative power.

The final Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll of the election published on Tuesday found likely voters favoured Mr Obama by 11 points over Mr McCain, 54-43%.

Other national polls indicate Mr Obama increasing his lead over his rival to as much as 13 points.

But the BBC's James Coomarasamy in Washington says that while Mr Obama has held a consistent lead for several weeks, a number of factors could undermine the pollsters' predictions.

Among them, he says, are the role the Illinois senator's skin colour may play in voters' intentions; whether newly registered voters will actually vote; and the Palin effect - whether Mr McCain's running mate has energised or alienated Republicans.

High cost

Under the US Electoral College system, states are allocated votes based on their representation in Congress.

In almost every state, the winner gets all these college votes.

To become president, a candidate needs to win a majority across the country - 270 college votes out of a possible 538.

BBC North America editor Justin Webb says there is much interest in three well-populated swing states - Florida and Ohio, both won narrowly by George Bush in 2004, and Pennsylvania, which went to the Democratic candidate John Kerry.

If Mr Obama can take Florida or Ohio, he is sure to become president, our correspondent says.

If John McCain holds them and takes Pennsylvania, he could just win, our correspondent adds.

The presidential election has been the most expensive in US history - costing $2.4bn, according to the non-partisan Center for Responsive Politics.

On the eve of the poll, Mr Obama said his grandmother, Madelyn Dunham - who largely raised him as a child - had died aged 86 in Hawaii after losing her battle with cancer.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/americas/us_elections_2008/7707581.stm

Published: 2008/11/04 22:39:25 GMT

© BBC MMVIII



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4 novembre 2008 2 04 /11 /novembre /2008 20:34

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Ten Questions For Election Day

Nov. 4, 2008

(CBS) This analysis was written by CBSNews.com senior political editor Vaughn Ververs.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nearly two years after the 2008 campaign officially began, Election Day is finally here. The path from there (when John Edwards announced his candidacy in December of 2006) to here has been unpredictable at times and unprecedented in so many ways.

No matter what happens, history will be made when the voters have had their say and elect either the first black president or the first woman vice president.

Barring a repeat of 2000, the campaign will come to an end at some point late tonight or perhaps in the wee hours of Wednesday morning. The most expensive election in U.S. history will be in the books and all the thousands of TV ads as well as all those national and state polls will be rendered meaningless.

There’s not much left to be said as voters head out to vote in what both sides are predicting to be record numbers. But, plenty of questions remain to be answered as the results come in. Here are 10 questions for Election Day:

1. What Should You Watch For Today? With turnout projections extremely high, long lines and reports of problems at the polls throughout the day will be worth keeping an eye on. Weather forecasts for much of the nation show few potential trouble spots but rain could be an issue stretching from southeast Pennsylvania to parts of Virginia and North Carolina - all battleground states.

It’s not at all unlikely that long lines, particularly in urban areas, will result in some states or cities extending voting hours, which could delay results in key places. Also, large numbers of voters means more to count for overworked election officials, which could mean the results coming in slower than normal.

Exit poll or purported exit poll information could spread anywhere on the Internet but be wary of anything you see. Quarantine procedures virtually guarantee that real data does not get out until much later in the day and, even then, anything you see could easily be early and incomplete. Beware.

Jeff Greenfield has a more complete breakdown of what to keep an eye on once the polls have closed, but right off the bat, before 8:00pm Eastern, the big four targets are Virginia, Indiana, North Carolina and Ohio. All are states carried by Republicans in at least the last two presidential elections and are crucial to John McCain’s hopes. If he’s doing well in those four states, it could be a long night.

2. Can Obama Win A Mandate? Democrats haven't won big mandates in presidential elections in recent history (and even Republicans have to go back a way to find their last big victory). However, Democrats' hopes have been raised by the polls leading up to the election that this could be a defining year, both nationally and in the Electoral College.

So, what would a mandate look like? Compared to the last four elections, it wouldn’t take much to win a big one. Bill Clinton won a whopping 370 Electoral Votes in 1992 but only managed a popular vote plurality of 43 percent, thanks to Ross Perot’s nearly 19 percent grab in that election as a third-party candidate. Clinton bettered his haul in 1996, winning 379 Electoral Votes, but still fell just short of a majority in the popular vote. Nobody needs to be reminded about the narrow split decision in 2000 and in 2004, George W. Bush just barely managed a majority in both.

A convincing popular vote victory appears within reach for Obama. With big turnout by black and young voters, Obama could run up his vote in states he’s unlikely to win - like Mississippi, Alabama and Arkansas - and in states he should win easily, like California and New York. A big Electoral College win is a bit trickier but not out of the question. Should states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida all tilt Democratic this year, it probably means he’s also winning Virginia and Colorado - perhaps even North Carolina and Indiana.

Fifty-three percent or higher in the popular vote combined with 338 or more Electoral Votes wouldn’t be a 49-state, 59 percent Reagan sweep, but a mandate nonetheless.

3. Can McCain Pull Off A Shocker? Don’t think this isn’t a real possibility. The odds are long, no doubt about it, but it’s not out of the question. So much has been made about this campaign taking place on largely Republican territory that it’s often forgotten that it is just that - Republican territory.

George Bush didn’t win two presidential elections by pure luck - he did it with very reliable get-out-the vote machines in many of these same states. For all the hype and attention given to Obama’s organization, Republicans have flown under the radar screen. But senior party officials say they are revving it up to the hilt and remain confident that there is at least a path to 270. If McCain can take places like Ohio and Virginia, that probably means teetering states like Indiana and Missouri can be held as well.

While Obama has made real inroads in the west, Pennsylvania could be this year’s Ohio or Florida from past elections. It’s an inside straight to be sure, but the cards left in the deck give them a shot.

4. What Does Massive Turnout Mean? Both sides in this election (and isn’t it telling that third party candidates have all but disappeared on all levels this year?) are predicting record turnout - at least in terms of raw numbers, if not percentage. There could be as many as 130 million Americans casting votes.

Conventional wisdom holds that increased turnout will benefit Obama in a big way. That might well be true. But even if larger numbers of black and young voters turn out to vote, their totals as a percentage won’t have the same impact if Republicans increase their share of the pie as well. Keep this in mind when you begin to hear about large turnout tomorrow: In 2004, Democrats not only far exceeded their turnout in Ohio, John Kerry received more votes than any other presidential candidate of his party, ever. But he lost, because Republicans did the same. Huge turnout could be a wash but probably benefits Obama, at least in the popular vote.

5. Can New Hampshire Happen Again? Remember the New Hampshire primary? Most polls had Obama cruising to a big win, some by as many as ten points. It was supposed to be the finishing blow to Hillary Clinton, who was staggering after a third-place finish in Iowa. But Clinton came back to win and take Obama all the way to the very end of the primary season.

Another bothersome signal for Obama is that he sometimes over-performed in exit polling during the primary season, getting much less of the actual vote than projected. There’s no way to tell whether many of these polls heading into the election are right or wrong until after the votes come in, but keep an eye out in those states where Obama remains in the lead, yet under 50 percent. If his support is being exaggerated, those are the first places you’ll see it.

6. What Will The Palin Effect Be? There is absolutely no doubt about it - love her or hate her, Sarah Palin has been the most interesting part of the last two months of the campaign. Since bursting onto the scene, the Alaska Governor has become arguably the most divisive figure in American politics today.

In the eyes of many analysts - and not a small number of Republicans - the choice of Palin has been a huge drag on the ticket. That view is backed up by a lot of polling data which shows that she has turned many moderate and independent voters away from McCain. But what none of that measures is the excitement she has generated among an evangelical base which was cool, at best, to McCain’s candidacy. These are the people whose organizational networks have powered the Republican Party for more than two decades.

If you’re inclined to write off Palin as a disaster of a pick, remember this: Before McCain had clinched the nomination, influential evangelical leader James Dobson proclaimed that he would never support him. After his pick of Palin, he enthusiastically came on board. For every potential vote in the middle McCain may have lost, he could gain one-and-a-half from reliable conservatives who may have stayed home otherwise.

7. Did "Joe The Plumber" Help? When “Joe The Plumber” stumbled upon Barack Obama canvassing in his Toledo, Ohio neighborhood, he inadvertently gave voice to a McCain economic message that had been a bumbling one at best. After initially calling the economy fundamentally strong, then “suspending” his campaign to work on the Wall Street bailout, McCain was lost on the most important issue for voters.

Enter “Joe The Plumber,” whose short exchange with Obama got the anti-tax juices running among Republicans. His name has become a campaign staple and served to revive the image of the Democratic Party as tax-and-spend. Polls still show that voters are just as likely to believe McCain would raise taxes as they do Obama but at least it’s given McCain a stable message. It could help, especially in places like Ohio and western Pennsylvania. If McCain wins, “Joe The Plumber” will have a special place in campaign history.

8. Did Clinton Voters Come Home? It’s been the biggest concern for Democrats since the primary season ended - will Hillary Clinton’s supporters come home? Polls have indicated that, in large part, they have. And Clinton, along with her husband, have coalesced around Obama in the closing weeks of the campaign.

But there remains a question mark about whether her supporters, especially the so-called “PUMAS,” (Party Unity My A$%), will stay home - or even vote for McCain. In most instances it won’t matter as many of them live in reliably blue states. But in those places where Clinton thrashed Obama in the primary campaign - particularly Ohio and Pennsylvania, those blue-collar men and women who supported Clinton could be a real benefit for the GOP if they move to McCain.

9. How Big Was The Bush Drag? In many respects, it’s almost a miracle that McCain enters Election Day with any chance at all. The latest CBS News poll tells the tale - President Bush has reached the lowest approval rating for any president in recorded history. Just 20 percent of voters approve of the job he is doing.

That’s the kind of head-wind Republicans are running against. From top to bottom, the GOP brand has been tarnished. The war in Iraq, a floundering economy and governmental mismanagement at all levels have produced a frustrated electorate hungry for a message of change. It hasn’t been all Bush’s fault, but he certainly gets the blame and has become the kind of drag on the ticket that could pull down a whole lot of candidates.

10. Can Democrats Hit 60 In The Senate? It’s not going to be easy, but Democrats are within striking distance of winning a filibuster-proof majority in the U.S. Senate. With a larger majority in the House all but certain, the party could rule nearly unimpeded if that were to happen.

Democrats are almost certain to pick up Republican-held Senate seats in Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia and probably Alaska. They are favored in another three at this point - North Carolina, Oregon and New Hampshire. And Republicans are holding their breath in the Mississippi special election (where no party ID is on the ballot), Minnesota, Kentucky and Georgia (where there could be a runoff if no candidate gets over 50 percent of the vote in a three-way race).

Should a real wave sweep over the country today, it’s not at all improbable to think that Democrats would pick up the nine seats they need to have that daunting majority. Then they’ll have to deal with Joe Lieberman, the Democrat-turned-Independent who now caucuses with his old party but has endorsed John McCain enthusiastically. It’s a reminder that politics doesn’t ever stop, especially after a presidential election.

Happy Election Day, get out and vote.

© MMVIII, CBS Interactive, Inc.


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4 novembre 2008 2 04 /11 /novembre /2008 20:33

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The Certain Loser In This Election

By Steve Chapman - November 04, 2008

Regardless of what the polls say, it's not clear who is going to win the presidential race. But it is clear who is going to lose: George W. Bush. If this contest proves anything, it's that the electorate is sick of him and eager for someone very different.

They might even prefer the candidate they elected in 2000. The one who promised to be "a uniter, not a divider." Who said he would "call for responsibility and try to live it as well." Who said the United States should be "a humble nation." Who faulted Al Gore for plotting to enlarge the government.

That candidate soon became famous for exploiting divisions, refusing to hold himself or his subordinates accountable, letting expenditures soar and making America synonymous with arrogance in much of the world. Whatever Americans hoped Bush would provide, it's safe to say that an open-ended war, an assault on the Constitution and an economic panic were not among them.

Americans may decide to replace him with another Republican, but if John McCain emerges victorious, it will be a tribute to his efforts to convince voters that he and Bush have barely met. Sometimes he sounds like he's running against Bush rather than Barack Obama.

One of his TV ads asked, "The last eight years haven't worked very well, have they?" An earlier one charged, "We're worse off than we were four years ago." At a recent rally, for anyone who missed the subliminal message, he thundered, "I'm not George Bush!"

Any GOP nominee might do the same. But not just anyone could offer attributes that contrast so markedly with Bush's. The president arrived as a foreign policy novice, with only six years in public office and a history of uninterest in what lay beyond our borders. Bush referred to the people of Greece as "Grecians," and in a 2000 radio interview, couldn't name the president of Pakistan.

Those are not the sort of mistakes the Arizona senator would make. McCain has traveled the world and made it his responsibility to inform himself about it, from multiple visits to Iraq to regular appearances at the annual Munich Conference on Security Policy, where defense officials from dozens of countries gather to discuss matters of war and peace.

Last spring, his aides were able to name 69 countries he has visited, which they said was not a complete list. One of the most arresting moments of the campaign came in the second debate, when he said, "I've been to Waziristan" -- winning the prize for the most unlikely boast ever heard in a U.S. election.

He was also a combat pilot and a prisoner of war, both of which tend to confirm one's seriousness in a way that Bush's unimpressive stint in the Air National Guard didn't.

Obama can't flout a military record, but his strengths, like McCain's, have a way of mirroring the president's shortcomings. Bush got where he is with the help of first-class family connections; Obama had to rise through brains and initiative. Bush regularly loses wrestling matches with the English language, while Obama expresses himself with unnerving fluency.

Bush becomes defensive and peevish when asked to answer the simplest questions about his policies; Obama never gets ruffled. Where Bush treats criticism like the Ebola virus, Obama conveys the impression that he hopes to learn from those who disagree with him.

The response of so many people to his message of unity comes partly from weariness with the administration's nonstop scorched-earth tactics. He conveys the novel view that Americans can disagree without hating each other. It's impossible to imagine an Obama attorney general braying, as John Ashcroft did in 2001, that his critics "give ammunition to America's enemies and pause to America's friends."

If Obama loses, though, it may well be because of something he shares with the Bush of 2000 -- a thin political resume that raises doubts about whether he can handle the most demanding job on Earth. If McCain loses, it will be largely because he is identified with the obstinacy and errors of the current White House occupant.

In the end, Americans may vote for either candidate. But after eight years of Bush, most of them will leave the polls singing the words of an old country tune: Thank God and Greyhound you're gone.

schapman@tribune.com
Copyright 2008, Creators Syndicate Inc.



An Election Day Note: Thanks, President Bush

By Andrew Breitbart - November 04, 2008

I have a dark secret to tell before the election so that it's on the record. It's something that is difficult to say to certain friends, peers, family and, lately, many fellow conservatives.

I still like George W. Bush. A lot.

For starters, I am convinced he is a fundamentally decent man, even though I have read otherwise at the Huffington Post.

President Bush is far smarter, more articulate and less ideological than his plentiful detractors scream, and, ultimately, he will be judged by history - not by vengeful Democrats, hate-filled Hollywood, corrupt foreign governments, an imploding mainstream media or fleeting approval ratings.

George W. Bush is history's president, a man for whom the long-term success or failure of democracy in Iraq will determine his place in history. He may end up a victim of his own tough choices, but the cheerleading for his demise when Iraq's outcome is yet determined has hurt America and possibly set up the next president for the same appalling partisan response.

The fact that the United States has not been attacked since Sept. 11, 2001, far exceeds the most wishful expert predictions of the time. Perhaps facing another al Qaeda-led barrage would have reinforced our need for national unity, caused us to recognize the gravity of the Islamist threat and fortified Mr. Bush's standing at home and abroad.

Yet, thankfully, that never happened. And Mr. Bush has been punished for this obvious success.

By most accounts, al Qaeda is reeling from the damage inflicted by our efforts against the once-thriving terror network. Yet reflexive enemies of the president - including Sen. Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee - shamefully mock him for not having caught Osama bin Laden.

It's a playground taunt from the same people who never seriously advocated for a strong military foray into the regions where bin Laden could have been caught. These Daily Kos armchair generals also rhetorically ask why we don't invade North Korea or Saudi Arabia. Yet no one takes this hypothetical warmongering seriously, or expects a President Obama to go on the offense in any of these conveniently preferable hot spots. It's meant to hurt, not help, the president.

While President Bush has been marshaling a multinational force to take on modernity's enemies in foreign lands, the American left has decided to go to war against not only Republicans but also moderate Democrats.

Bush hatred was a fait accompli.

Back in November 2000, when Al Gore contested Florida and the demonizing of George Bush began full-bore ("President Select," "Bush Chimp," "the illegitimate president"), I told Wall Street Journal columnist John Fund, "You watch, the Democratic Party will never grant Bush his humanity, and they will never let up."

And they never did.

The Democratic Party chose to send a clear message that the impeachment of President Clinton incurred by the newly minted Republican-led Congress and the upstart new media - talk radio and the Internet - would be countered by unprecedented partisan fury.

The media will shape "the truth" that Democrats were always behind the initial Afghanistan effort or were poised to grudgingly accept the president whom they previously mocked as "illegitimate."

But those brave liberals who stood by the president were mostly a small minority, and all of them have since been excommunicated for their apostasy.

Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and actor Ron Silver were presented as cautionary tales to left-of-center politicians and public figures who would lend support to a wartime Republican president.

Sen. Joe Lieberman, the Connecticut independent who was described as the "conscience of the Senate" when he ran for vice president with Al Gore in 2000, was summarily dismissed from the Democratic Party for dissenting over one thing.

And the youth movement that is fueling Obama-mania is riddled with minds that do not have the perspective of what happened before Mr. Bush, and why the media and the Democratic Party have stood against Mr. Bush and his motivations from the word go.

Much of Mr. Bush's 28 precent approval rating is born not of "failed policies" - of which there are many - but of the ill-gotten gains pilfered from a pre-Bush inauguration strategy to send the message to Republicans that the Democrats play politics harder and better.

Mr. Obama said it best: "If they bring a knife to the fight, we bring a gun."

I don't think Albert Einstein could have devised an equation to guide the leader of the free world during the wildly tumultuous post-9/11 realities without a modicum of help from the opposition party and the vast majority of the print and electronic media.

Right now, America appears to be leaning toward electing a man for whom popularity is a paramount concern. That means he must trust the American media and the American electorate to guide him to difficult decisions, not the other way around.

The American people pay closer attention to "Survivor: Gabon" than to Operation Iraqi Freedom. Yet the majority will soon have a greater say in how we proceed in the war on terror. We are headed to the "American Idol" presidency. The last thing I want is my text vote on the financial crisis to have a say on how we proceed.

If Barack Obama is elected the next president of the United States on Tuesday, I hope the Republican Party and conservatives take the higher road. The republic cannot handle another four years of undeclared civil war while we have real enemies out there to fight.

Andrew Breitbart is the founder of the news Web site breitbart.com and is co-author of "Hollywood Interrupted: Insanity Chic in Babylon - the Case Against Celebrity."




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4 novembre 2008 2 04 /11 /novembre /2008 20:32

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The Silent Issue

Lisa Miller
Newsweek Web Exclusive
Nov 3, 2008 | Updated: 2:50  p.m. ET Nov 3, 2008

Abortion hasn't been a central debate in the 2008 campaign. But that doesn't mean that its opponents feel any less strongly about it.

It's abortion, stupid. For conservative Christians in this election the most important religious issue isn't gay marriage, stem-cell research or Christmas trees on courthouse lawns. It is abortion (as it has been for at least the past 35 years, since the Supreme Court ruled on Roe v. Wade). When they walk into the voting booth on Tuesday, can they look beyond their fundamental, conscience-driven opposition to abortion as a moral evil? Do they want to? If yes, they may vote for Sen. Barack Obama. If not, they will, despite any reservations, vote for Sen. John McCain.

With a real war abroad and recessionary anxiety at home, abortion rhetoric has been unusually quiet in this election season. Denver's Archbishop Charles Chaput made some news in August when he told the Associated Press that he hoped pro-choice Democratic vice presidential pick (and observant Roman Catholic) Joe Biden would "refrain from presenting himself at communion." But that was nothing compared to the small war a group of bishops waged on Sen. John Kerry in 2004 when they said he should not be given communion—an assault that put the Democrat on the defensive and, in the end, led to his Fort Lauderdale, Fla., religion speech, an awkward maneuver that the senator himself has said was too little, too late. News channels have played no b-roll of abortion supporters or protesters holding up their obligatory offensive placards, showing perfect fetuses on the one hand and coat hangers on the other. As I've written in previous columns, the silence of Saddleback Church pastor Rick Warren on the subject of abortion in this election has been notable. In 2004, Warren sent an e-mail around listing the five "non-negotiables" for any evangelical voter, and abortion was of course high on that list. This year, he has made no such pronouncement.

This relative silence on the part of religious conservatives, along with the well-documented broadening of the evangelical agenda to include issues like poverty and the environment, has led some to speculate that conservative Christians don't care about abortion the way they used to. This assumption is not true. While just more than 50 percent of Americans call themselves pro-choice, according to recent polls, just over 40 percent call themselves "pro life"—numbers that have not changed much in a decade. Among the very religious, though, opposition to abortion remains as strong as ever. Seventy percent of evangelicals who go to church weekly or more oppose legalized abortion. For Roman Catholics, the number is 60 percent. According to research by the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, young evangelicals are as conservative—if not more so—than their parents on abortion.

The vitriol is still there too, if you scratch the surface. Last month, the conservative Catholic theologian George Weigel wrote a piece for NEWSWEEK in which he dissected the arguments by a number of Roman Catholics who said they could remain faithful to their Church and still pull the lever for Obama. While Weigel's tone was professorial, the thousands of comments on his piece were not. "People need to understand that abortion is the root of all this evil that is going around," wrote one reader. "In 20 years as a doctor I don't think I have ever had one woman who requested abortion do so without crying," wrote another. Weigel's piece was among the top stories read on Newsweek.com that week; emotions among commenters ran as obstinate and as vehement as ever. Late last week, Dr. James Dobson of Focus on the Family predicted that an Obama administration would result in more abortions nationwide. Clearly, abortion as an issue for the faithful is not going away.

What's new, then, is this: A few—a very few—prominent Christians and Catholics (like Douglas Kmiec, one of Weigel's ideological opponents) have been making arguments that allow a conservative Christian believer to vote for Obama in good conscience. These, in summary, are:

A pro-life Christian can look at a candidate's policies on behalf of children—for isn't it as urgent for a nation to care for its born children as its unborn ones?

A pro-life Christian needs to look beyond abortion to other types of needless killing, like war and torture and care for the neediest. Which candidate will better promote life, when considered this broadly?

After 35 years, anti-abortion activists have accomplished very little, politically, to end legal abortion. Why not try something new? Work on the state level for restrictions? Work with political opponents to find common ground?

Work to achieve justice on behalf of other, less intractable issues, like AIDS, literacy or childhood disease?

None of these arguments is perfect, and none releases a Christian voter who was raised with and believes in the evil of abortion from his moral obligation to oppose it. But they do provide Christians who are leaning toward Obama with a rationale and an escape from the divisive, mean-hearted rhetoric of the past three decades. On the far right, these arguments won't change anyone's mind. In the middle, they might.

It is impossible to overstate, however, the potency of the anti-abortion movement among conservative Christians in America, especially since the galvanizing days of Jerry Falwell and the moral majority in the early 1980s. Young evangelicals, especially, who were raised in that environment talk about how difficult it is to see abortion in anything but black-and-white terms. Gov. Sarah Palin, whose family portrait contains the silent but not hidden message, "I didn't have an abortion and neither did my teenage daughter," speaks directly to these Christians and echoes the messages they've heard their whole lives—at home, in Sunday school, at youth group and at church. In September, Cameron Strang, the 32-year-old publisher of the Christian magazine Relevant told me how frustrated he was that the selection of Palin put the abortion debate back on the table—and in such an old fashioned way. "All of a sudden, it's us versus them and you have to pick a side," he said. "With abortion as a wedge issue, it's going to be harder and harder for moderate Christians to feel OK supporting Obama."

This next data point refers to Catholics, but it broadly pertains to conservative evangelicals as well. According to a study by William D'Antonio at Georgetown University, 70 percent of American Catholics say they are willing to oppose their bishops on abortion. But that doesn't mean they will.


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4 novembre 2008 2 04 /11 /novembre /2008 20:31

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Obama for president

By James Fallows - 04 Nov 2008 02:24 am

Three negative reasons, one positive, to believe that Barack Obama's victory will advance America's interests, and that John McCain's would be severely damaging:
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Negative 1: Accountability. There have been minor positive aspects to the eight-year Bush-Cheney era now coming to an end. But when the diplomatic, fiscal, Constitutional, economic, and other civic consequences are viewed as a whole, this era has, in my view, been a disaster for the United States.

And evidently this assessment of our recent history is not just my view. That is what the record-low approval ratings for President Bush, and the record-high "wrong track" poll readings indicate. For America to return the incumbent party to power after this record would make a mockery of the idea of ballot-box accountability and two-party competition. If an incumbent party retains power after this record, what is the meaning of party competition at all?

I have spent a lot of time as an American overseas, starting in the bitter Nixon years of the early 1970s. Never has the "brand identity" of being an American suffered as much as it has under George W. Bush. Any American business person operating overseas will confirm this fact.

John McCain pretends that he is not from the incumbent party. But in economic policy and international diplomatic/military vision there is no significant difference, none at all, between his policies and what the Bush Administration has offered. The "maverick" distinctions boil down to McCain's acknowledgment of climate change, his wildly disproportionate emphasis on the "earmark" menace, and -- to his credit -- his early opposition to the Bush-Cheney torture policies. Those matter but are not enough.
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Negative 2: Leadership style. John McCain is not willfully ignorant and incurious, which is a welcome contrast to George W. Bush. But he has shown during the campaign that he shares Bush's weakness for impulsive, gut-instinct decisions. For Bush: the Iraq war; for McCain, the choice of Sarah Palin and the short-lived "emergency suspension" of his campaign.

Some presidential decisions do require quick, "3 am" instinctual responses. Most do not -- and instead require a willingness to think broadly and dispassionately about the consequences of each alternative, since big decisions have effects that ripple for years. (See: "Iraq war," above.) Like Barack Obama, McCain does not have a record of executive decision-making. Unlike Obama, McCain has provided powerful reasons to doubt his judgment under the kind of pressure that matters most: the pressure to make decisions that are not quick but wise.
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Negative 3: Sarah Palin.
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Positive: The tone, the policies, the cast of mind, the talent, and, yes, the hope consistently represented by Obama during these past two years on the trail. If he is elected, disappointment will certainly follow. The expectations now projected upon him far exceed what any mortal can achieve.  But to give the country a new chance, a leader must inspire, and he can.


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